Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fba…92e7 sports 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$77 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate26%21W / 60L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$277
7 days+$283
14 days+$283
30 days+$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$2,783
other 40% −$2,512
politics 1% −$83
crypto 1% −$98
world 1% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -20.1% -27.7% 38% 38% +6.1%
≤30d 16 -20.1% -27.7% 38% 38% +6.1%
≤90d 16 -20.1% -27.7% 38% 38% +6.1%
all 81 -30.0% -36.7% 26% 20% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 20% -9.0%
10% -42.8% 17% -17.7%
15% -48.3% 16% -25.7%
20% -53.4% 15% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$327 vs −$117 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses21 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions17
Markets (closed)81 / 109
History coverage153d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $134 $126 −$8 (-6%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 35¢ 36¢ $89 $92 +$3 (+3%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 26¢ 33¢ $52 $66 +$14 (+26%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 76¢ 76¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 83¢ 84¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-17%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+22%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $16 $4 −$12 (-75%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $35 $2 −$33 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $12 +$16 +140%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $305 +$756 +248%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $256 −$251 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $216 −$216 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $68 −$66 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $35 +$17 +48%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $14 −$13 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $235 +$165 +70%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 22 $72 −$72 -99%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $367 +$15 +4%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $16 −$11 -69%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 +$129 +129%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $241 −$129 -53%
Will Burnley FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $27 −$19 -70%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-02-01? Mar 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 31? Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-02-07? Mar 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Mar 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England win? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 10? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-07? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $243 −$243 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 10? Mar 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $618 −$618 -100%
Will Wales win? Mar 18 $129 −$129 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-31? Mar 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $34 +$26 +75%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 18 $235 −$231 -98%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $499 −$161 -32%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $80 −$76 -95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $107 +$2 +2%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $104 +$17 +16%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Mar 17 $44 −$32 -73%
Will Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Mar 16 $22 +$77 +350%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $6 −$5 -85%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Mar 15 $209 +$1,331 +638%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Feb 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 11 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 83¢ $2 6m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 83¢ $7 10m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 15m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 83¢ $7 17m
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 20m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $16 22m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $1 41m
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 43m
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 48m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Will S BUY 0¢ $2 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 18¢ $51 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a dr BUY 3¢ $13 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $14 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $1 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $3 2h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $27 2h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $1 2h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $31 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 5¢ $16 6h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 6h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 15h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $305 18h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 42h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.87 · official $571.09 · 662 history records