Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1fb8…32d0
crypto · 97 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$11 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses43 / 49
Open positions5
Markets (closed)92 / 97
History coverage105d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 5 History 92 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 42¢ 16¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National Intelligence? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by June 30? No 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? No 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? No 21¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $101 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$20 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $56 +$30 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +110%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$16 -78%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $10 +$8 +85%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $10 +$12 +120%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +21%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +52%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 25 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 10 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 03 $15 +$2 +13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 03 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? May 03 $5 +$6 +130%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 03 $15 −$7 -44%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $5 +$8 +164%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump out as President before 2027? Apr 11 $5 $0 -6%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $5 +$40 +809%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 08 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% +$87
world 20% −$31
politics 7% −$31
other 7% −$4
finance 0% −$5
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $11 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.5% -3.7% 62% 58% -6.6%
≤30d 25 +6.7% -3.5% 64% 60% -6.4%
≤90d 86 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 44% -4.4%
all 92 -1.6% -10.9% 47% 43% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 43% -8.6%
10% -19.5% 33% -17.3%
15% -27.3% 25% -25.3%
20% -34.4% 20% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.65 · official $40.72 (match) · 299 history records