Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1F 0x1fb7…9bf1 sports 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$14 (+13%) realized +$11 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%47W / 38L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$17
14 days+$12
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$13
other 8% +$2
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +26.6% +14.5% 65% 65% +15.2%
≤30d 85 +12.1% +1.4% 55% 55% +0.9%
≤90d 85 +12.1% +1.4% 55% 55% +0.9%
all 85 +12.1% +1.4% 55% 55% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 55% +0.9%
10% -8.3% 54% -8.7%
15% -17.2% 49% -17.5%
20% -25.3% 45% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses47 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)85 / 103
History coverage20d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+300%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +262%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $1 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $1 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $1 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $1 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $1 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 72¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 59¢ $1 25h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 55¢ $1 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $1 25h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $1 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $1 25h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $1 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $1 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $1 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $1 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.75 · official $20.75 (match) · 153 history records