Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1fb6…a642 crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized +$84 · open −$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate79%44W / 12L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$158
14 days+$158
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$69
other 3% +$3
sports 1% −$7
politics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +6.8% -3.4% 79% 55% +0.3%
≤30d 56 +6.8% -3.4% 79% 55% +0.3%
≤90d 56 +6.8% -3.4% 79% 55% +0.3%
all 56 +6.8% -3.4% 79% 55% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 55% +0.3%
10% -12.6% 43% -9.3%
15% -21.1% 34% -18.0%
20% -28.8% 16% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses44 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage198d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 55¢ 52¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $102 −$96 -94%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Taylor Swift say "Christmas" on The Late Show on December 10? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" in February? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on Decembe Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week? Jun 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FI Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $28 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.15 · official $27.15 (match) · 145 history records