Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1fb5…cabd sports 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,306 (-11%) realized −$7,401 · open +$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%107W / 138L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$555
7 days+$405
14 days+$405
30 days+$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$1,401
sports 29% −$1,763
finance 15% −$869
world 9% −$982
politics 6% −$232
weather 5% −$568
crypto 3% −$1,135
economics 1% −$140
culture 0% −$6
tech 0% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -10.4% -18.9% 50% 50% +33.6%
≤30d 2 -10.4% -18.9% 50% 50% +33.6%
≤90d 12 -23.6% -30.9% 33% 33% -27.5%
all 245 -12.5% -20.8% 44% 40% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 40% -19.6%
10% -28.4% 37% -27.3%
15% -35.3% 34% -34.3%
20% -41.7% 30% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$147 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$1,473
Realized−$7,401
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses107 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)245 / 250
History coverage260d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 57¢ $650 $687 +$37 (+6%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 41¢ $220 $220 +$0 (+0%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $210 $208 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $197 $196 −$1 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 94¢ $100 $161 +$61 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $700 +$555 +79%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5 Mar 27 $434 −$432 -100%
Spread: Houston Cougars (-3.5) Mar 27 $100 +$91 +92%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $100 +$143 +143%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-8.5) Mar 25 $271 −$270 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 132.5 Mar 25 $200 −$199 -100%
Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-11.5) Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-03-20? Mar 24 $1,930 −$487 -25%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $101 −$101 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 23 $759 −$226 -30%
NCAA Tournament: 1 seed knocked out before round of 16? Mar 23 $279 +$161 +58%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 21 $364 +$30 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 21 $312 −$4 -1%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $111 −$111 -100%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $250 −$250 -100%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 21 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5) Mar 21 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 21 $400 +$130 +32%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 21 $100 +$54 +54%
LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 150.5 Mar 21 $311 +$252 +81%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 20 $200 +$111 +55%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 20 $5,226 −$544 -10%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 20 $698 +$8 +1%
Rangers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 20 $309 +$112 +36%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 19 $321 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $300 −$300 -100%
AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $244 −$158 -65%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 135.5 Mar 19 $298 −$244 -82%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-27.5) Mar 19 $100 −$4 -4%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 19 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 19 $1,343 −$144 -11%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $200 +$122 +61%
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-6.5) Mar 19 $200 +$190 +95%
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Mar 19 $200 +$33 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Melbourne City FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $300 +$200 +66%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $300 +$182 +61%
Lamine Yamal: Anytime Goalscorer Mar 18 $100 +$108 +108%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $450 $0 +0%
Lightning vs. Kraken Mar 18 $200 +$122 +61%
Panthers vs. Canucks Mar 18 $200 −$117 -58%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $330 −$154 -47%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $230 +$103 +45%
NCAA Tournament: Double-digit seed to make Quarterfinals? Mar 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 17 $373 +$105 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $202 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $224 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $212 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $650 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1,255 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $700 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $152 2d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5 BUY Under 54¢ $434 85d
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-8.5) BUY Arkansas Razorbacks 53¢ $271 87d
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 132.5 BUY Under 51¢ $200 87d
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars BUY Illinois Fighting Illini 41¢ $100 87d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-3.5) BUY Illinois Fighting Illini 52¢ $100 87d
Lakers vs. Pistons BUY Lakers 31¢ $100 88d
Lakers vs. Pistons BUY Lakers 25¢ $1 88d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL No 47¢ $533 89d
NCAA Tournament: 1 seed knocked out before round of 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $439 89d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL No 80¢ $394 91d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 73¢ $308 91d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY No 67¢ $759 91d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-03-20? SELL Yes 48¢ $759 91d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-03-20? BUY Yes 55¢ $684 91d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-03-20? SELL Yes 54¢ $684 91d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-03-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,246 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? SELL No 93¢ $530 91d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? BUY Yes 47¢ $111 92d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $100 92d
Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-11.5) BUY Miami (OH) RedHawks 49¢ $100 92d
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $311 92d
LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 150.5 BUY Under 55¢ $311 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,472.67 · official $1,472.67 (match) · 654 history records