Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:33:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

1F 0x1fb4…10e8 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$63 (-11%) realized −$45 · open −$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%6W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit92%portable

Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-3.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	12	+6.5%	-3.6%	50%	50%	-21.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.6%	50%	-21.6%
10%	-12.8%	42%	-29.1%
15%	-21.3%	42%	-35.9%
20%	-29.0%	42%	-42.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -6% → late +19% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.7 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage

Net worth$183

Realized−$45

Unrealized−$18

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses6 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)12 / 13

History coverage176d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$201	$183	−$18 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner	Feb 15	$35	−$35	-100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	Feb 15	$20	−$20	-100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs HOTU (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Playoffs	Feb 14	$21	+$12	+55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Feb 14	$5	+$15	+296%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	Feb 14	$20	+$12	+61%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	Feb 14	$4	−$4	-100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Playoffs	Feb 14	$20	+$13	+66%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	Feb 14	$10	−$4	-42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca G	Feb 14	$10	−$10	-100%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Pl	Feb 13	$55	+$6	+11%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs	Jan 23	$47	−$47	-100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs 9INE (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qu	Jan 23	$20	+$26	+132%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$110	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$29	13d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner	BUY G2	54¢	$35	126d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	BUY G2	65¢	$20	126d
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs HOTU (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Playoffs	SELL HOTU	99¢	$33	127d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	SELL G2	99¢	$20	127d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY G2	25¢	$5	127d
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs HOTU (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Playoffs	BUY HOTU	64¢	$21	127d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$40	127d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	SELL FaZe	100¢	$32	127d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	BUY G2	20¢	$4	127d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Playoffs	SELL Gentle Mates	99¢	$33	127d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	SELL PARIVISION	29¢	$6	127d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	BUY FaZe	62¢	$20	127d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Playoffs	BUY Gentle Mates	60¢	$20	127d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca G	BUY Aurora Gaming	59¢	$10	127d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	BUY PARIVISION	50¢	$10	127d
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Pl	SELL Gentle Mates	100¢	$61	128d
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Pl	BUY Gentle Mates	90¢	$55	128d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$55	128d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs	BUY Spirit	69¢	$47	149d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs 9INE (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qu	SELL Gentle Mates	99¢	$9	149d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs 9INE (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qu	SELL Gentle Mates	100¢	$38	149d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs 9INE (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qu	BUY Gentle Mates	43¢	$20	149d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$20	149d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$26	170d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$35	171d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$50	175d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.22 · official $183.22 (match) · 201 history records