Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1F 0x1fb1…daec sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$550 (-8%) realized −$550 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$53
14 days−$48
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$255
finance 35% −$98
world 17% +$19
other 4% −$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.0% -17.7% 45% 45% -22.4%
≤30d 30 -15.4% -23.5% 47% 47% -18.8%
≤90d 57 -11.3% -19.8% 46% 37% -17.6%
all 57 -11.3% -19.8% 46% 37% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 37% -17.6%
10% -27.4% 37% -25.5%
15% -34.5% 33% -32.7%
20% -40.9% 19% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$44 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$550
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 31
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage67d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $41 −$2 -6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $50 +$23 +46%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $50 +$23 +46%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $25 +$21 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $20 +$23 +114%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $101 +$71 +70%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $61 +$41 +67%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $49 −$38 -78%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $51 +$31 +62%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $46 −$45 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $41 −$40 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $42 +$44 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $96 +$44 +46%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $101 −$3 -2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $66 +$31 +47%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $49 +$20 +42%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $115 −$113 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $79 +$36 +46%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 31 $50 −$50 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $98 +$32 +32%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $248 −$245 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 06 $61 +$49 +81%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $151 +$59 +39%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $21 −$20 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $51 +$35 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants May 05 $41 −$40 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 03 $66 +$54 +82%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox May 03 $34 +$42 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies May 03 $45 +$22 +48%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 02 $152 −$150 -99%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 27 $126 −$124 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 27 $115 +$9 +8%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $91 +$28 +30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 26 $100 −$10 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $222 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 24 $101 −$2 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 22 $981 −$45 -5%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $151 −$27 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $550 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $38 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 43¢ $41 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $51 20h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 68¢ $50 42h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $41 45h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 68¢ $50 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $20 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 35¢ $31 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $25 6d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $25 6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $20 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $20 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $101 10d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 64¢ $51 11d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 47¢ $51 11d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 100¢ $102 12d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 17¢ $11 12d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 74¢ $49 12d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 59¢ $61 12d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 61¢ $51 14d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $20 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 59¢ $46 15d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $41 15d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $42 16d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Colorado Rockies 68¢ $96 17d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 78¢ $98 17d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 79¢ $101 17d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Detroit Tigers 98¢ $96 17d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 66¢ $66 17d
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 70¢ $49 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records