Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fb1…8436 sports 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$277 (+2%) realized +$276 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%125W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$195est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3,664
14 days−$2,840
30 days−$2,840
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$31
other 9% +$61
world 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -44.5% -49.8% 20% 20% -60.0%
≤30d 182 -33.8% -40.1% 25% 25% -42.5%
≤90d 293 +5.0% -5.0% 43% 42% -9.4%
all 293 +5.0% -5.0% 43% 42% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 42% -9.4%
10% -14.1% 42% -18.1%
15% -22.4% 40% -26.0%
20% -30.0% 40% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$31 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$276
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses125 / 168
Est. fees paid−$195
Open positions5
Markets (closed)293 / 301
History coverage87d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Under 37¢ 48¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+33%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 42¢ 26¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $41 −$17 -41%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$25 -49%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $294 −$35 -12%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $41 −$18 -44%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 21 $20 +$44 +214%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 21 $30 +$21 +70%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$68 +134%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $99 −$88 -88%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $28 +$51 +183%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 20 $34 −$4 -12%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $10 +$50 +509%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 19 $41 −$5 -11%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 +$46 +114%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $92 −$50 -55%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $30 +$37 +120%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $121 −$40 -33%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5) Jun 18 $30 −$29 -96%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $10 −$1 -5%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $81 +$56 +69%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $39 +$101 +259%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $20 −$1 -3%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $56 −$56 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$23 -77%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$7 +36%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $40 −$20 -50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$9 -45%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 18 $31 +$38 +125%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $27 +$34 +130%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $16 +$24 +150%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 18 $30 −$2 -6%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 18 $26 −$26 -99%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$34 +83%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $20 +$20 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 42¢ $20 40m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 30¢ $24 41m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 37¢ $31 44m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) SELL San Francisco Giants 23¢ $26 45m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $30 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $31 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 88¢ $118 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 52¢ $71 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 1h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 30¢ $23 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 40¢ $141 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $41 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $223 3h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles SELL Samsung Lions 100¢ $52 8h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY Kia Tigers 31¢ $20 9h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 58¢ $30 10h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $51 15h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: BUY 14¢ $62 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $79 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $79 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 17¢ $9 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $9 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $20 25h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 39¢ $30 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $18 25h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $20 26h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) SELL Miami Marlins 38¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.41 · official $205.69 · 647 history records