Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fb0…84a4 crypto 9 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$122 (-46%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.5% -10.9% 17% 17% -52.7%
≤30d 9 -21.9% -29.3% 22% 22% -54.9%
≤90d 9 -21.9% -29.3% 22% 22% -54.9%
all 9 -21.9% -29.3% 22% 22% -54.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 22% -54.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 11% -59.2%
15% -42.3% 11% -63.1%
20% -47.9% 11% -66.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$25 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$43 +409%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 10 $42 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $15 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records