Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1F 0x1fad…20d8 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 350d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$495 (+14%) realized +$103 · open +$392
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%26W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$1,206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days+$348
14 days+$348
30 days+$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$1,011
other 32% −$283
economics 15% −$235
world 1% −$21
tech 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +28.1% +15.9% 60% 57% +12.7%
≤30d 30 +28.1% +15.9% 60% 57% +12.7%
≤90d 33 +21.3% +9.7% 58% 55% +12.6%
all 49 +14.7% +3.8% 53% 49% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 49% -6.9%
10% -6.2% 47% -15.8%
15% -15.2% 45% -23.9%
20% -23.5% 41% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$37 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

350d coverage
Net worth$1,206
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$392
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses26 / 23
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions14
Markets (closed)49 / 63
History coverage350d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 70¢ $574 $980 +$406 (+71%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $38 $37 −$2 (-4%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+28%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Ivan Perišić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Miguel Almirón score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 22¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$26 +83%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 +$18 +45%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 +$30 +144%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$43 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $22 +$1 +7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$24 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 +$39 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +152%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9 +$21 +238%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $39 +$21 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $544 +$333 +61%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $5 +$11 +222%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $41 +$28 +70%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 −$6 -30%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $98 +$56 +57%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$28 +140%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 11 $5 +$14 +276%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-11? Apr 15 $104 +$61 +59%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Feb 24 $10 +$22 +222%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $3 +$11 +376%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) Feb 24 $7 +$11 +156%
Football.Fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 30 $270 +$21 +8%
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 12 $5 −$5 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jan 12 $119 +$46 +39%
Broncos vs. Raiders Dec 07 $13 −$4 -33%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Croatia win on 2025-10-09? Oct 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will FCSB win on 2025-09-25? Sep 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $52 +$17 +32%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31? Sep 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Learner Tien win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? Sep 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Turkey win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Sep 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $41 46m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 87¢ $58 16h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 50¢ $10 17h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $50 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $31 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $15 18h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $21 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $40 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 57¢ $24 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $21 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $31 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $41 45h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 77¢ $202 47h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 50¢ $5 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $4 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $4 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $21 3d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $23 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $39 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $22 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 82¢ $82 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $60 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 30¢ $5 4d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,205.90 · official $1,205.94 (match) · 237 history records