Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fad…0aeb world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$8
politics 23% $0
other 12% +$1
economics 7% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 20% -8.5%
≤30d 7 +1.9% -7.8% 57% 14% -8.6%
≤90d 18 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 11% -8.8%
all 45 -0.6% -10.0% 33% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 4% -9.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage315d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $31 +$5 +15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $88 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $43 −$2 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $25 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $64 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $93 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $5 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $4 −$1 -21%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $30 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $42 +$4 +11%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $2 $0 -9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on August 15? Aug 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $41 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 13 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $32 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $3 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $31 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $18 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $20 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $41 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $41 46h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $43 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $43 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $4 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $47 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $43 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $11 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $46 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $32 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records