Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1faa…84b8 crypto 87 markets active 2d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate69%60W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$23
weather 9% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +10.2% -0.3% 58% 58% -19.6%
≤30d 38 -0.9% -10.3% 61% 45% -33.9%
≤90d 87 -1.7% -11.0% 69% 46% -13.6%
all 87 -1.7% -11.0% 69% 46% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 46% -13.6%
10% -19.5% 26% -21.9%
15% -27.3% 17% -29.4%
20% -34.4% 11% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses60 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage78d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $7 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$5 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 24 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 03 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 03 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 29 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 29 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 28 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 73¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 97¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records