Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fa9…732b crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$577 (+18%) realized +$578 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 39L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$1,271
tech 10% −$288
sports 8% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.4% -8.3% 42% 36% +48.6%
≤30d 72 -0.8% -10.2% 46% 43% +21.0%
≤90d 72 -0.8% -10.2% 46% 43% +21.0%
all 72 -0.8% -10.2% 46% 43% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 43% +21.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 36% +9.5%
15% -26.7% 29% -1.1%
20% -33.9% 25% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$22 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$578
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 39
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage9d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 63¢ 62¢ $63 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $147 +$53 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $308 +$252 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$17 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$14 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $181 +$337 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $271 +$519 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $124 +$113 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$51 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $63 +$33 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $58 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$19 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $58 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$61 +386%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$15 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $68 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $77 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$15 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$33 +159%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $96 −$94 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $103 −$86 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$25 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $56 −$51 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $64 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $27 54m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 79¢ $55 56m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 79¢ $24 56m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 67¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.00 · official $121.00 (match) · 425 history records