Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fa5…5690 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$277 (-12%) realized −$272 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$434
other 33% −$105
world 21% +$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 67% -23.5%
≤30d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 67% -23.5%
≤90d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 64% 64% -19.5%
all 11 -3.2% -12.4% 64% 64% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 64% -19.5%
10% -20.8% 55% -27.2%
15% -28.4% 45% -34.3%
20% -35.4% 36% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$208 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$272
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage84d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$32 +53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$20 +49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $142 +$87 +61%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$57 +56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$97 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $4 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? Apr 22 $562 −$531 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 18 $492 +$100 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 07 $265 +$232 +87%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $200 +$66 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $92 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $41 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $204 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $142 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $102 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 29¢ $362 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 17¢ $200 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL Yes 37¢ $592 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 33¢ $292 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $497 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $265 80d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $266 80d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $200 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.77 · official $84.77 (match) · 22 history records