Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f9f…e21c crypto 233 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$862 (-8%) realized −$861 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%120W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$903
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$566
sports 27% −$399
other 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.0% -24.0% 60% 50% -24.7%
≤30d 80 -22.6% -30.0% 49% 41% -27.3%
≤90d 232 -10.9% -19.4% 52% 46% -17.6%
all 232 -10.9% -19.4% 52% 46% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 46% -17.6%
10% -27.1% 40% -25.4%
15% -34.1% 29% -32.6%
20% -40.6% 21% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$31 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$861
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses120 / 112
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage38d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $39 −$39 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $25 +$7 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $21 +$16 +73%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 −$17 -91%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 +$12 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $26 +$4 +16%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $19 +$7 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 −$28 -92%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 +$4 +40%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $6 +$3 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +43%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $16 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 18 $6 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 18 $30 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 18 $105 −$80 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 18 $248 −$32 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 18 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 18 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 18 $135 +$41 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 18 $104 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 18 $223 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 18 $227 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 18 $134 −$100 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 18 $83 +$67 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 18 $76 +$20 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 18 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 18 $228 +$49 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 18 $256 −$200 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 18 $106 −$26 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 18 $115 −$112 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 18 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 18 $106 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 18 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 18 $83 −$14 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 18 $52 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 18 $99 −$40 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 18 $41 +$51 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 18 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 18 $162 −$159 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 18 $46 −$45 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $98 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $39 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $11 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $25 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $37 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $10 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $21 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 7¢ $2 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $18 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $48 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $35 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 15h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 27h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 100¢ $30 28h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 86¢ $26 28h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Los Angeles Sparks 99¢ $27 28h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 71¢ $19 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 5¢ $2 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $31 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 40h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $9 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $9 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $6 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $11 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.67 · official $97.67 (match) · 497 history records