Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:55:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1f9f…a025 other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,635 (+15%) realized +$6,396 · open +$239
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate78%32W / 9L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$861per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3,325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$778
14 days+$933
30 days+$3,490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1,779
crypto 17% +$990
tech 16% +$200
world 15% +$9
politics 5% +$429
culture 2% +$217
economics 0% +$92
finance 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +19.6% +8.2% 100% 62% +1.9%
≤30d 34 +10.3% -0.2% 79% 53% +1.3%
≤90d 41 +10.3% -0.2% 78% 51% +0.6%
all 41 +10.3% -0.2% 78% 51% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 51% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 39% -9.0%
15% -18.5% 22% -17.8%
20% -26.5% 12% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$923) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$86 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.52 per $1 lost it wins $5.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$3,325
Realized+$6,396
Unrealized+$239
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses32 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)41 / 53
History coverage37d
Avg bet$861
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,288 $1,262 −$26 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 55¢ $408 $444 +$36 (+9%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 62¢ 86¢ $255 $356 +$101 (+40%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 66¢ 82¢ $212 $266 +$54 (+25%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 32¢ 84¢ $98 $256 +$158 (+161%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $315 $236 −$79 (-25%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $193 $187 −$6 (-3%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? No 79¢ 84¢ $79 $84 +$5 (+6%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 43¢ 45¢ $65 $68 +$4 (+6%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No $44 $49 +$4 (+10%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $24 $38 +$14 (+56%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 60¢ 81¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $99 +$16 +16%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $308 +$145 +47%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $63 +$2 +3%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $666 +$109 +16%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2,078 +$208 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,188 +$81 +4%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $638 +$180 +28%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 14 $113 +$37 +32%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $3,520 +$154 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $425 +$26 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $203 −$83 -41%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $411 +$277 +68%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $943 +$55 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $131 −$129 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $215 +$131 +61%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 12 $243 −$186 -77%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $260 −$16 -6%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 11 $210 −$146 -69%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $225 +$72 +32%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $393 +$7 +2%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Jun 05 $119 +$34 +29%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $811 +$160 +20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $1,009 +$92 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6,906 +$745 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $431 +$578 +134%
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $254 +$72 +28%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $303 +$130 +43%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $697 +$303 +43%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $91 +$92 +102%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 29 $1,153 +$377 +33%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? May 26 $403 +$43 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? May 26 $923 +$62 +7%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 22 $145 −$25 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $3,318 −$115 -4%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Coast Guard event? May 21 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Coast Guard event? May 21 $37 +$40 +108%
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $73 +$29 +39%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $1,015 −$20 -2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18? May 18 $67 −$58 -87%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $937 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 14 $145 +$36 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $151 1m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $83 31m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No $0 59m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No $6 59m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No $11 59m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No $0 59m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No $0 59m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No $15 59m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $339 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $17 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $147 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $6 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $38 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $16 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $123 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $12 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $34 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $43 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No $12 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $39 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $44 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,325.08 · official $3,321.81 (match) · 680 history records