Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f9e…2077 politics 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%4W / 36L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$7
politics 23% −$3
tech 12% −$2
world 10% −$1
economics 10% −$2
sports 6% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 40 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$792) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses4 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage82d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market clos Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $1,289 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,252 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close Jun 14 $1,274 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $1,225 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next May 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $778 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 09 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $818 −$1 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem May 05 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli May 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 04 $800 −$1 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House May 04 $792 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 04 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $119 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $129 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Mar 27 $155 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Mar 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market clos SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market clos BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $69 23h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 23h
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 23h
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 23h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,287 24h
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 24h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,274 24h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 24h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $890 24h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $360 24h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 25h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,252 25h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,285 2d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $17 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,265 2d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close SELL No 100¢ $913 2d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close SELL No 100¢ $359 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close BUY No 100¢ $1,274 2d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records