Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f9c…73ff world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$2
other 21% −$2
politics 7% +$1
sports 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.9% -10.4% 56% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 -0.7% -10.1% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -0.7% -10.1% 40% 0% -9.5%
all 32 -3.1% -12.3% 47% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage469d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 52¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $64 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -12%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $40 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $120 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 23 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 14 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 29 $15 $0 +3%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $22 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $10 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $12 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $12 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $12 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $5 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $17 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 45h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $33 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $23 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.51 · official $35.17 (match) · 105 history records