Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f9b…de0b world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate49%43W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
other 19% −$4
politics 18% +$2
sports 15% −$8
finance 4% +$1
economics 1% $0
weather 0% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -8.9% 71% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 +28.7% +16.5% 43% 1% -9.5%
all 88 +23.1% +11.4% 49% 14% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 14% -9.7%
10% +0.8% 9% -18.4%
15% -9.0% 7% -26.3%
20% -17.9% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses43 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage531d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 49¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 85¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $48 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $114 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $93 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $65 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $78 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $38 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $117 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $13 −$1 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $167 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $63 −$7 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $21 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $13 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $41 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $39 +$2 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $109 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $149 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $42 $0 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $123 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $81 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $42 $0 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $3 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $39 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $8 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $11 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $16 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $17 36h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $22 36h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $39 38h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $15 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $19 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $36 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $22 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $39 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $2 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $33 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $39 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $11 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.51 · official $39.69 (match) · 370 history records