Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1f9a…e70e crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+1%) realized +$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%27W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$574per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$50
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$42
world 27% +$76
other 8% +$15
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 10 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 24 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 27 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$783
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses27 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage150d
Avg bet$574
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $783 $783 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $658 +$18 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $735 +$32 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $737 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $720 +$18 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $716 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $700 +$4 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $700 +$5 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 22 $704 +$3 +0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $702 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $700 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $643 +$20 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 10 $638 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8? May 08 $675 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 07 $674 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $674 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? May 05 $669 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 04 $671 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? May 03 $671 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 02 $670 +$1 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 02 $660 +$12 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1? Feb 03 $519 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 02 $518 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 28? Jan 30 $518 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $528 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $255 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $676 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $658 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $735 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 100¢ $737 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $2 21d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY No 98¢ $44 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY No 98¢ $416 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY No 98¢ $98 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY No 98¢ $65 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY No 98¢ $98 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 99¢ $716 24d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 34d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $5 34d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $700 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 99¢ $700 36d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $704 38d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $702 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $700 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 96¢ $96 47d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 97¢ $547 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $163 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $333 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $142 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $675 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $674 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $674 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $669 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $783.04 · official $783.04 (match) · 64 history records