Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f97…7033 politics 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$2
politics 24% −$2
other 19% $0
sports 10% $0
tech 6% $0
culture 6% $0
finance 3% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 +4.3% -5.7% 42% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +2.8% -7.0% 39% 6% -9.3%
all 50 -0.6% -10.1% 32% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage286d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $74 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $16 $0 +3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $34 −$1 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $37 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $17 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $16 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $5 +$3 +57%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $32 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $36 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 18 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $4 −$1 -12%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Sep Sep 11 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 09 $4 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $8 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $28 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $17 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 26h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 30h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 30h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 30h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 32h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 32h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $1 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $32 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $10 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $23 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $37 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $37 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $7 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $7 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $37 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $37 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $12 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $4 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 178 history records