Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1F 0x1f97…b2f4 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$73 (-10%) realized −$70 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate60%9W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day7.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit47%portable

Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-8.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+1.7%	-8.0%	60%	27%	-21.0%
≤30d	15	+1.7%	-8.0%	60%	27%	-21.0%
≤90d	15	+1.7%	-8.0%	60%	27%	-21.0%
all	15	+1.7%	-8.0%	60%	27%	-21.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.0%	27%	-21.0%
10%	-16.8%	27%	-28.5%
15%	-24.9%	27%	-35.4%
20%	-32.2%	20%	-41.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

44% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -8% → late +10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$41 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.68 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$85

Realized−$70

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses9 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)15 / 19

History coverage3d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day7.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	89¢	94¢	$37	$39	+$2 (+6%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$34	$34	−$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	13¢	$12	$10	−$2 (-20%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	2¢	$4	$2	−$2 (-59%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$15	+$2	+10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$42	+$19	+45%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$2	+$5	+225%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$20	+$16	+78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$190	−$190	-100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$16	−$13	-84%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$10	+$1	+7%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan?	Jun 15	$24	$0	+1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan?	Jun 15	$32	+$1	+4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan?	Jun 15	$12	−$12	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan?	Jun 15	$18	−$18	-100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$50	+$116	+234%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$184	+$9	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$35	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	90¢	$15	9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$42	14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	76¢	$3	2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	5¢	$3	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$51	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	53¢	$17	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$139	2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$16	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	40¢	$11	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$165	2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	12¢	$12	2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	89¢	$37	2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	8¢	$3	2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$18	2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan?	BUY No	99¢	$24	2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan?	BUY No	95¢	$32	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	93¢	$10	2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$4	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$2	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$50	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$193	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$149	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$36	3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$12	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.79 · official $84.79 (match) · 38 history records