Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:54:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
1F 0x1f90…941e sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$275 (+4%) realized +$275 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$473
world 4% +$760
other 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 67% -22.5%
≤30d 3 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 67% -22.5%
≤90d 3 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 67% -22.5%
all 17 +20.3% +8.9% 59% 59% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 59% -5.9%
10% -1.6% 47% -14.9%
15% -11.1% 35% -23.1%
20% -19.8% 35% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$510) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$308 vs −$403 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$275
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage184d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $34 +$7 +20%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $23 +$5 +22%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $59 −$28 -48%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 07 $240 +$760 +317%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jan 15 $11 −$11 -100%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 12 $210 −$210 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jan 12 $275 +$225 +82%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jan 11 $250 +$250 +100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Jan 06 $510 +$490 +96%
Bulls vs. Celtics Jan 06 $820 +$180 +22%
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers Jan 06 $650 −$650 -100%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Dec 31 $506 −$506 -100%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Dec 31 $250 +$250 +100%
Magic vs. Raptors Dec 29 $255 −$255 -100%
Mavericks vs. Kings Dec 27 $1,160 −$1,160 -100%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 27 $888 +$312 +35%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 26 $300 +$600 +200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $27 57m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $14 57m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $28 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 31¢ $30 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $34 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $23 1h
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $240 126d
Raptors vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 5¢ $5 163d
Raptors vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 14¢ $1 163d
Raptors vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 14¢ $5 163d
76ers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 42¢ $210 166d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 55¢ $275 167d
Spurs vs. Celtics BUY Spurs 50¢ $250 168d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Jazz 33¢ $52 173d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Jazz 33¢ $70 173d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Jazz 33¢ $1 173d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Jazz 33¢ $1 173d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Jazz 33¢ $2 173d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Jazz 33¢ $16 173d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Jazz 33¢ $5 173d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Jazz 33¢ $183 173d
Bulls vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 82¢ $520 173d
Bulls vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 82¢ $5 173d
Bulls vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 82¢ $82 173d
Bulls vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 82¢ $5 173d
Bulls vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 82¢ $209 173d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Jazz 32¢ $5 173d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Jazz 32¢ $153 173d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Jazz 32¢ $26 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records