Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f8d…6790 sports 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,389 (-8%) realized −$15,268 · open +$879
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate27%40W / 108L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,096per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$1,483est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$9,544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$3,461
other 8% +$3,025
world 2% +$79
politics 1% −$404
economics 1% −$6
culture 0% −$9
crypto 0% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.5% -12.7% 44% 33% -21.0%
≤30d 12 -5.9% -14.9% 42% 33% -19.0%
≤90d 122 -4.2% -13.3% 32% 14% -10.5%
all 148 -3.9% -13.1% 27% 11% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 11% -10.3%
10% -21.4% 8% -18.9%
15% ← realistic here -29.0% 7% -26.8%
20% -36.0% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$1,400) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$86 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$9,544
Realized−$15,268
Unrealized+$879
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses40 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$1,483
Open positions19
Markets (closed)148 / 170
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$1,096
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $1,096 $1,444 +$347 (+32%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 78¢ $1,019 $1,240 +$221 (+22%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $884 $899 +$16 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $772 $897 +$125 (+16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $914 $875 −$40 (-4%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $710 $865 +$155 (+22%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $536 $588 +$52 (+10%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $544 $564 +$20 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 47¢ $448 $376 −$72 (-16%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $346 +$96 (+38%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $431 $334 −$97 (-23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $226 $295 +$69 (+30%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $257 $287 +$30 (+12%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 59¢ 84¢ $177 $252 +$75 (+42%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $85 $122 +$37 (+44%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $126 $103 −$23 (-18%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $160 $41 −$119 (-74%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $1 −$12 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 15 $3,088 +$43 +1%
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $504 −$504 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $804 −$177 -22%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $556 −$80 -14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $76 +$119 +156%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $594 −$206 -35%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $165 +$60 +37%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $225 −$50 -22%
Will Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Jun 05 $61 −$19 -31%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 29 $713 +$94 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 01 $43 −$10 -24%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $1,447 −$751 -52%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $572 +$177 +31%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 30 $1,092 +$808 +74%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $471 +$15 +3%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $336 −$325 -97%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 17 $329 +$41 +12%
Canucks vs. Sharks Apr 12 $1,650 −$50 -3%
Flames vs. Kraken Apr 12 $1,680 −$534 -32%
Flyers vs. Jets Apr 11 $748 −$468 -63%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Apr 11 $679 −$247 -36%
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 11 $765 +$15 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Apr 11 $1,865 +$60 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 11 $436 −$150 -34%
Oilers vs. Kings Apr 11 $932 −$462 -50%
Wild vs. Predators Apr 11 $2,510 +$40 +2%
Mexico City: James Duckworth vs Tibo Colson Apr 11 $262 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 11 $1,575 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 11 $1,020 +$40 +4%
Capitals vs. Penguins Apr 11 $1,060 $0 -0%
Mexico City: Luka Pavlovic vs Stefano Napolitano Apr 11 $27 $0 -2%
Predators vs. Utah Apr 10 $720 +$480 +67%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Apr 10 $320 +$10 +3%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 10 $599 −$389 -65%
Jets vs. Blues Apr 10 $550 −$440 -80%
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 09 $522 −$228 -44%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Apr 09 $1,130 +$5 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Apr 09 $423 −$350 -83%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $1,160 +$840 +72%
Monza: Timofey Skatov vs Hugo Gaston Apr 09 $532 −$8 -2%
Monza: Dino Prizmic vs Billy Harris Apr 09 $217 −$19 -9%
Monza: Martin Landaluce vs Marco Cecchinato Apr 09 $580 −$56 -10%
Madrid: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Toby Samuel Apr 09 $1,578 +$9 +1%
Madrid: Nerman Fatic vs Franco Agamenone Apr 09 $1,050 −$68 -6%
Wuning: Clement Chidekh vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Apr 09 $365 −$36 -10%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $528 −$314 -60%
Wuning: Li Tu vs Alastair Gray Apr 09 $405 +$4 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $630 +$105 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $74 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $170 11h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 15h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 15h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 15h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 15h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 15h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 15h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 15h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 15h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 15h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 15h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $627 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $804 32h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $476 34h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $85 34h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $92 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $275 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $531 35h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $94 40h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 59¢ $0 43h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 59¢ $1 45h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 59¢ $14 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,543.71 · official $9,543.71 (match) · 3500 history records