Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f83…fe7c crypto 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$50 (-24%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$48
14 days−$56
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -10.8% -19.3% 38% 38% -43.5%
≤30d 69 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 39% -35.1%
≤90d 69 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 39% -35.1%
all 69 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 39% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 39% -35.1%
10% -30.5% 39% -41.3%
15% -37.2% 38% -46.9%
20% -43.4% 36% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 58¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$9 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$10 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$4 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 31 $2 +$3 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $1.78 (match) · 152 history records