Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1f80…7047 sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+3%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$112
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$14
other 50% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +0.1% -9.5% 45% 45% +11.4%
≤30d 54 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 41% +5.3%
≤90d 54 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 41% +5.3%
all 54 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 41% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 41% +5.3%
10% -23.5% 41% -4.8%
15% -30.9% 37% -14.0%
20% -37.7% 35% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage10d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 38¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $30 +$39 +127%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $35 +$20 +56%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $5 +$5 +93%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $15 +$8 +55%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $30 +$8 +27%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -99%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $40 +$61 +154%
Panama vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$6 +114%
Norway vs. France: Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $5 +$6 +124%
Norway vs. France: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$24 +473%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 +$6 +109%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 +$8 +165%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 +$13 +124%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$9 +93%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -27%
Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target Jun 24 $5 +$1 +27%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$2 -46%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $39 +$20 +51%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $30 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 33¢ $24 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 26h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Panama vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 2d
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 2d
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.99 · official $34.99 (match) · 117 history records