Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f7f…5e31 other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate16%8W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$14
other 17% −$1
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% +$5
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +6.2% -3.9% 11% 6% -7.8%
≤90d 40 +2.8% -7.0% 15% 5% -9.3%
all 51 +2.2% -7.6% 16% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 4% -9.7%
10% -16.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -24.5% 4% -26.2%
20% -31.9% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 95% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses8 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage604d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $73 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6 +$7 +114%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $54 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $7 +$7 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $58 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 09 $7 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $17 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,216 −$3 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 23 $1,588 −$8 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 22m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 22h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 45h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 46h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 7d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $9 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $12 10d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $12 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $6 11d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 15d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.85 · official $59.85 (match) · 258 history records