Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1F 0x1f7f…4fc0 crypto 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,311 (-4%) realized −$11,311 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%94W / 103L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,377per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 183d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$25,515
other 1% −$3,030
politics 1% −$89
sports 0% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -46.9% -51.9% 29% 29% -59.8%
≤30d 14 -46.9% -51.9% 29% 29% -59.8%
≤90d 14 -46.9% -51.9% 29% 29% -59.8%
all 197 -1.0% -10.4% 48% 44% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 44% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 38% -26.1%
15% -26.8% 34% -33.2%
20% -34.0% 29% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,516) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,132 vs −$1,313 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,311
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses94 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)197 / 197
History coverage183d
Avg bet$1,377
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 197 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $1,148 −$736 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $6,998 −$6,700 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $2,503 +$3,220 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $5,695 −$5,695 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $1,998 −$1,896 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $1,634 −$1,564 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $831 +$804 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $835 −$700 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $1,472 −$1,472 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $867 +$605 +70%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $227 −$222 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $1,378 +$668 +48%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 24 $3,075 −$3,039 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 24 $13 +$14 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 24 $488 −$475 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 24 $488 −$480 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 23 $425 +$953 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 23 $150 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 23 $1,083 −$1,076 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 23 $330 −$326 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 23 $324 +$297 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 23 $293 +$40 +14%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 23 $9 +$1 +6%
Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 21 $395 +$108 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 21 $642 +$204 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 21 $402 +$245 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 21 $1,221 +$203 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 21 $235 +$116 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 21 $20 +$32 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 21 $432 +$214 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Feb 21 $20 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Feb 21 $10 +$14 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 21 $795 +$253 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 18 $189 −$187 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 18 $634 −$624 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 18 $975 −$960 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 18 $1,147 −$1,129 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 18 $730 +$432 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 18 $200 +$242 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 13 $1,270 −$1,252 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 13 $527 +$253 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 13 $683 −$679 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Feb 13 $975 −$960 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 13 $595 −$587 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 13 $585 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 13 $488 −$480 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 13 $488 −$480 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $211 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $211 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $345 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $106 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $73 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $312 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $229 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $313 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $312 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $313 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $314 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $254 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $313 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $313 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $313 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $313 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $312 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $207 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $61 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $210 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $315 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $210 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2034 history records