Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1F 0x1f7e…323f crypto 851 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,156 (+3%) realized +$5,156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%404W / 447L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 159d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,787
other 0% +$8
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +3.1% -6.7% 53% 53% +3.3%
≤30d 215 +3.6% -6.2% 51% 51% -2.4%
≤90d 656 -21.6% -29.1% 39% 39% -29.1%
all 851 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 47% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 47% -8.5%
10% -19.5% 47% -17.2%
15% -27.3% 46% -25.2%
20% -34.4% 45% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$160 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses404 / 447
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)851 / 851
History coverage159d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 851 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $91 −$88 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$45 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$19 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $295 +$251 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $163 +$127 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $259 +$247 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $419 +$492 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $194 +$226 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $279 −$270 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $130 +$148 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $515 −$515 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $308 −$308 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $401 −$401 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $243 −$243 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $272 −$272 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 14 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 14 $319 −$319 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $217 −$198 -91%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $188 −$117 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $244 +$272 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $128 +$117 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $114 +$100 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $272 −$262 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $408 −$394 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $745 +$488 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $411 +$358 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $91 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $295 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $163 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $259 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $419 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $420 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $194 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $279 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $130 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $25 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $217 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $110 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $54 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $71 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $71 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $117 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $230 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $515 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $516 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $244 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $244 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $128 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $258 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2008 history records