Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f7e…62aa crypto 6 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (891 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$139 (-1%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,717per market
Trades / day891.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -29.3% -36.1% 33% 33% -10.8%
≤30d 6 -29.3% -36.1% 33% 33% -10.8%
≤90d 6 -29.3% -36.1% 33% 33% -10.8%
all 6 -29.3% -36.1% 33% 33% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover891.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.1% 33% -10.8%
10% -42.2% 33% -19.3%
15% ← realistic here -47.8% 33% -27.1%
20% -52.9% 33% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
148.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,226 vs −$1,148 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,717
Trades / day891.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 30 $1,563 +$1,010 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $1,243 −$543 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $3,343 +$3,441 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $1,271 −$1,202 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 30 $1,312 −$1,267 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 30 $1,573 −$1,579 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $956 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $211 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $280 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $212 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $176 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $144 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $212 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $210 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $316 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $510 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $210 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $314 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $209 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $238 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $94 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 896 history records