Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

1F 0x1f79…15aa other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$379 (-22%) realized −$378 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate29%6W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$77per market

Trades / day4.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$72

7 days−$566

14 days−$495

30 days−$497

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-35.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-32.8%	-39.2%	33%	27%	-49.6%
≤30d	21	-29.0%	-35.7%	29%	24%	-38.7%
≤90d	21	-29.0%	-35.7%	29%	24%	-38.7%
all	21	-29.0%	-35.7%	29%	24%	-38.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.7%	24%	-38.7%
10%	-41.9%	24%	-44.6%
15%	-47.5%	24%	-49.9%
20%	-52.6%	10%	-54.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +2% → late -57% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$52 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.36 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$146

Realized−$378

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses6 / 15

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage16d

Avg bet$77

Trades / day4.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$147	$146	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$74	−$72	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$79	+$35	+45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$188	+$82	+43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$243	−$157	-64%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$217	−$217	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$134	−$134	-100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$30	−$16	-53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$50	−$50	-100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 13	$29	+$2	+5%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$51	+$54	+107%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 13	$50	−$4	-9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$99	−$99	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$20	+$26	+135%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$205	+$79	+39%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 09	$18	−$7	-37%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 06	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03?	Jun 04	$13	$0	-2%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03?	Jun 03	$2	$0	-9%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03?	Jun 03	$25	−$2	-8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$150	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	56¢	$74	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$114	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$79	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	99¢	$269	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$188	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	20¢	$87	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	53¢	$243	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$217	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$134	3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	14¢	$3	3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	15¢	$14	4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$30	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$50	4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	SELL Yes	17¢	$27	5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	SELL Yes	12¢	$4	5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	BUY Yes	14¢	$6	5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	BUY Yes	14¢	$4	5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	BUY Yes	14¢	$0	5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	99¢	$104	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$51	6d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	30¢	$45	6d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$50	6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$99	6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	93¢	$46	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.81 · official $145.81 (match) · 81 history records