Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f79…434a sports 457 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,432 (+13%) realized +$4,383 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%204W / 252L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$517est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$78
14 days+$111
30 days+$3,540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$3,394
other 2% +$286
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +15.0% +4.1% 50% 50% -4.6%
≤30d 97 +8.8% -1.6% 55% 55% +10.1%
≤90d 336 -5.7% -14.7% 43% 43% +0.9%
all 456 -6.3% -15.2% 45% 44% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 44% +0.2%
10% -23.3% 42% -9.4%
15% -30.7% 39% -18.2%
20% -37.5% 34% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$51 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$4,383
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses204 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$517
Open positions1
Markets (closed)456 / 457
History coverage111d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 456 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 51¢ 100¢ $51 $100 +$49 (+96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $56 +$44 +78%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $445 −$170 -38%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $54 +$23 +42%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $95 +$165 +174%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $60 +$40 +67%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $47 +$23 +48%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $45 −$44 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $70 −$69 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $71 +$29 +42%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $23 +$37 +165%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $44 −$43 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $54 −$53 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $40 +$60 +150%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $137 −$136 -99%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $28 −$28 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $25 −$24 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $60 +$40 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $51 +$208 +406%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $16 +$14 +83%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$68 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$139 +226%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$15 +104%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $575 +$263 +46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $338 +$162 +48%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $396 +$204 +52%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $694 +$156 +22%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $112 +$188 +168%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $302 +$194 +64%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $479 −$132 -28%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $273 −$271 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $332 +$118 +36%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $323 +$277 +86%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $234 +$266 +114%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $188 −$186 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $916 +$484 +53%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $348 −$342 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $307 +$243 +79%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $448 −$442 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $213 +$87 +41%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $117 −$116 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $243 +$207 +85%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $30 −$29 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $199 +$101 +51%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $90 −$90 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $100 +$100 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $52 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 56¢ $34 4h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 56¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 56¢ $20 4h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $61 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $108 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 55¢ $275 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $55 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $22 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $55 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $54 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $56 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $33 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 54¢ $27 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 53¢ $26 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 52¢ $26 2d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 42¢ $43 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 32¢ $3 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 32¢ $49 3d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 44¢ $45 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 48¢ $49 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 35¢ $9 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 35¢ $1 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 35¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 35¢ $1 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 35¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 35¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 35¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY OG 59¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 2075 history records