Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f75…3018 sports 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$326 (-1%) realized −$326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%70W / 60L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$504est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$181
14 days−$171
30 days+$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$380
crypto 39% −$32
other 2% −$118
politics 0% −$5
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -13.7% -21.9% 47% 27% -20.0%
≤30d 41 -5.5% -14.5% 61% 34% -7.0%
≤90d 130 +1.6% -8.1% 54% 38% -11.1%
all 130 +1.6% -8.1% 54% 38% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 38% -11.1%
10% -16.9% 23% -19.7%
15% -24.9% 19% -27.4%
20% -32.3% 16% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$72 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses70 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$504
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage64d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 −$29 -31%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $525 +$7 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $483 −$48 -10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $10 +$10 +96%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $243 +$10 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +109%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +105%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $1,760 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $700 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $853 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $1,620 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $800 $0 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $100 +$16 +16%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova Jun 05 $10 −$2 -24%
Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $372 +$28 +8%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $39 +$6 +17%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $114 +$14 +12%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $58 +$32 +55%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $19 +$4 +19%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $446 +$92 +21%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $50 +$22 +44%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $518 +$46 +9%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $311 +$62 +20%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $102 +$4 +4%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $153 +$26 +17%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 24 $353 +$11 +3%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $748 +$38 +5%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $953 +$22 +2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $43 +$3 +6%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $209 +$93 +44%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $155 −$34 -22%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $224 +$69 +31%
T20 2nd Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 80.5 May 17 $17 +$150 +874%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $535 +$53 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 16 $409 +$151 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 16 $101 +$16 +16%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $983 −$458 -47%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 16 $294 −$52 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 64¢ $63 32m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $532 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 75¢ $3 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 75¢ $150 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 75¢ $84 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 75¢ $288 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 73¢ $434 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $483 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 16¢ $16 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 15¢ $12 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 15¢ $3 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes SELL Kiwoom Heroes 100¢ $20 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Ireland 28¢ $45 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Ireland 28¢ $1 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Ireland 28¢ $100 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Ireland 28¢ $72 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 13¢ $52 4d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY SSG Landers 49¢ $10 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 33¢ $37 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 33¢ $29 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 44¢ $25 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Ireland 62¢ $35 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 55¢ $100 4d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY NC Dinos 28¢ $0 4d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY NC Dinos 28¢ $2 4d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY NC Dinos 28¢ $4 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 51¢ $10 4d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY NC Dinos 42¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 869 history records