Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:17:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1f72…5845 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$13
politics 37% −$13
sports 14% $0
crypto 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -1.3% -10.7% 8% 5% -9.6%
all 114 -1.9% -11.2% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 8% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 4% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage118d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $303 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $267 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $243 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $282 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $238 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $455 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $217 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $204 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 03 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 03 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $204 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $228 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $240 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $203 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $247 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $250 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 26 $226 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $254 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 22 $244 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $243 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $230 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $286 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $292 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 19 $281 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $216 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $424 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 47h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $37 2d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 4d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $36 9d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 12d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 24d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $243 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $243 27d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $214 27d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $214 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $275 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $275 32d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $282 33d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $282 34d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $222 34d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 36d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $226 36d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $226 37d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $238 47d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $239 47d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $239 47d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $261 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records