Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1F 0x1f6e…8c03 crypto 15 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,448 (-62%) realized −$1,447 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,459
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -13.8% -22.0% 60% 50% -67.3%
≤30d 10 -13.8% -22.0% 60% 50% -67.3%
≤90d 10 -13.8% -22.0% 60% 50% -67.3%
all 10 -13.8% -22.0% 60% 50% -67.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 50% -67.3%
10% -29.5% 50% -70.4%
15% -36.3% 40% -73.3%
20% -42.6% 30% -75.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$427 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$1,447
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $261 −$260 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $227 +$57 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $147 +$88 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $92 +$55 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1,430 −$1,400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.94 · official $6.94 (match) · 25 history records