Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:31:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1f6b…cfaf
crypto · 215 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,021 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,022 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$1,022
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses180 / 34
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 215
History coverage12d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 214 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$1,081
14 days−$1,022
30 days−$1,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? No 20¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $55 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $46 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $322 −$165 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $50 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $100 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $125 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $101 −$15 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% +$215
world 14% −$1,243
other 2% −$52
sports 1% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $54 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $48 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $66 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 +3.3% -6.5% 84% 24% -19.1%
≤30d 214 +3.5% -6.4% 84% 24% -18.4%
≤90d 214 +3.5% -6.4% 84% 24% -18.4%
all 214 +3.5% -6.4% 84% 24% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 24% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 10% -26.2%
15% -23.5% 3% -33.3%
20% -31.0% 1% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.65 · official $40.65 (match) · 797 history records