Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1F 0x1f6b…267e crypto 511 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$37,875 (+154%) realized +$37,853 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate17%156W / 748L
Whale WR9%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day63.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 53d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$706
politics 14% −$6
world 10% +$362
economics 5% +$86
tech 5% −$1,094
other 1% +$5
finance 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 452 -43.1% -48.5% 8% 8% -77.3%
≤30d 534 -38.4% -44.3% 13% 11% -71.2%
≤90d 904 -38.4% -44.3% 17% 15% -46.4%
all 904 -38.4% -44.3% 17% 15% -46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.3% 15% -46.4%
10% ← realistic here -49.6% 14% -51.5%
15% -54.5% 12% -56.2%
20% -59.0% 11% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 9% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -34% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$45 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized+$37,853
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses156 / 748
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)904 / 511
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 904 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $99 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $71 $96 +$25 (+35%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 18¢ 16¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-8%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 23¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2160%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 11AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 2AM ET Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 12? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 7PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 14? Jun 18 $521 −$521 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 8AM ET Jun 18 $267 −$267 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 5PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 6? Jun 18 $22 −$34 -152%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on December 15 Jun 18 $0 −$5 -1380%
Will Trump tweet on inauguration day? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in first 100 days? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8? Jun 18 $59 −$60 -101%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 10? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $89 −$93 -105%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3500 on July 26 at 5PM ET? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 12? Jun 18 $9 +$4 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 3? Jun 18 $86 +$64 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 22? Jun 18 $574 −$649 -113%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$48 +247469%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 9AM ET Jun 18 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$7 +1322%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 2? Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 6PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 29? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Jun 18 $54 −$130 -240%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on December 26 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 1¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 1¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 1¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 1¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 67¢ $112 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 67¢ $133 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 71¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 80¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 70¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 54¢ $59 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 54¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 54¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 38¢ $126 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 22¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 30¢ $90 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 3¢ $13 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 3¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $29 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $0 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.85 · official $231.85 (match) · 3500 history records