Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f69…da9d crypto 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$89 (-4%) realized −$109 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$31
14 days+$34
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$111
crypto 33% +$131
sports 12% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -8.8% -17.5% 37% 35% -6.4%
≤30d 88 -17.0% -24.9% 34% 33% -10.8%
≤90d 88 -17.0% -24.9% 34% 33% -10.8%
all 88 -17.0% -24.9% 34% 33% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 33% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 32% -19.4%
15% -38.7% 28% -27.2%
20% -44.7% 26% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 58
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)88 / 95
History coverage18d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $187 $184 −$3 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $94 $110 +$16 (+17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $65 $70 +$5 (+8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $90 +$122 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $65 −$63 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -79%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in Jun 24 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $13 −$8 -61%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerl Jun 24 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $47 −$41 -88%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $158 +$188 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$13 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -99%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +44%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -69%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 +$20 +137%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $4 +$2 +42%
Targu Mures: Michele Ribecai vs Niels McDonald Jun 23 $3 +$4 +161%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $27 −$23 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$2 -13%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $44 −$13 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$7 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 +$3 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$12 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$6 +266%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $16 +$29 +181%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$8 +108%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 9m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 10m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 58¢ $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 60¢ $4 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.95 · official $417.41 · 398 history records