Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f69…74aa other 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$25
politics 32% −$18
sports 10% +$31
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 144 -1.0% -10.4% 10% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage132d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $255 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $296 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $266 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $250 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,129 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,129 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $317 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $808 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $308 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $294 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $569 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $272 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 03 $292 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $313 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $329 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $315 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $595 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $290 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $269 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $323 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $259 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $237 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $230 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $263 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $294 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $310 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $316 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $258 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $262 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 10h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 10h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $266 24d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $266 25d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $250 26d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $250 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $288 27d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $288 28d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $297 28d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $297 29d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $303 31d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $303 31d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $250 31d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $250 32d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $270 32d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $270 32d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $231 34d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $231 34d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $317 34d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $317 35d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $228 35d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $228 35d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $243 36d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $243 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 442 history records