Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

1F 0x1f68…0244 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$215 (+26%) realized +$216 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate62%8W / 5L

Drawdown47%max

Avg bet$60per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days+$111

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)+5.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+122.0%	+100.9%	100%	100%	+100.9%
≤90d	13	+16.9%	+5.8%	62%	54%	+14.0%
all	13	+16.9%	+5.8%	62%	54%	+14.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.8%	54%	+14.0%
10%	-4.3%	54%	+3.1%
15%	-13.6%	54%	-6.9%
20%	-22.1%	54%	-16.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +41% → late -4% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs −$37 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage

Net worth$59

Realized+$216

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses8 / 5

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 14

History coverage94d

Avg bet$60

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown47%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5)	France	54¢	54¢	$60	$59	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 31	$91	+$111	+122%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24?	May 24	$61	−$20	-33%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	May 19	$46	−$43	-93%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	May 18	$51	−$31	-62%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?	May 16	$81	+$63	+78%
Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)	Apr 20	$40	+$25	+63%
Rockets vs. Lakers	Apr 19	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?	Apr 19	$60	+$56	+93%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?	Apr 14	$45	+$35	+78%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12?	Apr 12	$50	+$48	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Apr 11	$100	+$1	+1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	Apr 09	$61	+$46	+76%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?	Apr 09	$60	−$60	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	54¢	$61	1h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	29¢	$15	30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	37¢	$15	30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	54¢	$61	30d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24?	SELL Yes	36¢	$41	36d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24?	BUY Yes	52¢	$61	36d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	SELL Yes	2¢	$3	41d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	41d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	BUY Yes	33¢	$41	41d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	SELL Arsenal FC	20¢	$20	42d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	BUY Arsenal FC	50¢	$51	42d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$144	44d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?	BUY Yes	49¢	$20	44d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?	BUY Yes	58¢	$61	44d
Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)	BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC	60¢	$40	71d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?	BUY Yes	51¢	$60	71d
Rockets vs. Lakers	BUY Rockets	65¢	$30	72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?	SELL Yes	99¢	$80	76d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?	BUY Yes	55¢	$45	76d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$98	78d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12?	BUY Yes	50¢	$50	78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$100	79d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	SELL Yes	100¢	$108	81d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	BUY Yes	56¢	$61	83d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?	BUY Yes	64¢	$60	93d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.44 · official $59.44 (match) · 31 history records