Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:03:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1F 0x1f67…4869 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$76 (+20%) realized +$83 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$69
other 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +21.2% +9.7% 29% 29% +40.5%
≤30d 7 +21.2% +9.7% 29% 29% +40.5%
≤90d 8 +20.7% +9.2% 38% 38% +36.3%
all 8 +20.7% +9.2% 38% 38% +36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.2% 38% +36.3%
10% -1.2% 25% +23.3%
15% -10.8% 25% +11.4%
20% -19.5% 25% +0.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$18 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage39d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Qatar 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 28¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 Over 15¢ 14¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Under 17¢ 16¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $31 +$136 +442%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 +$32 +206%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $19 +$3 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $51 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $36 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $41 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 55¢ $51 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $51 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 2¢ $10 27h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $31 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $51 27h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 1¢ $10 27h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 1¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $20 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $15 4d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $19 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.21 · official $218.21 (match) · 18 history records