Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f67…d0c4 other 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$40
sports 27% −$24
politics 9% −$8
culture 7% −$7
crypto 5% −$7
economics 4% −$4
world 4% −$2
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage132d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $570 −$2 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $494 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $236 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $712 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $422 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $813 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $151 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $744 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $292 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $304 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $311 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $260 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $630 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $187 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $127 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $192 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $346 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $428 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $133 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $369 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $147 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $56 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $57 3h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 7h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 8h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 11h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $57 13h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 15h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $16 16h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $16 17h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 19h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 20h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 23h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 25h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 26h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 27h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 29h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 31h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 34h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 36h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 44h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 46h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 47h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1380 history records