Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:54:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f66…4c8d weather 441 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51,860 (+58%) realized +$52,993 · open −$1,133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate16%112W / 577L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day126.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$24,128
other 2% −$383
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 450 -64.2% -67.6% 7% 6% -50.5%
≤30d 686 -34.8% -41.0% 16% 14% -6.6%
≤90d 686 -34.8% -41.0% 16% 14% -6.6%
all 686 -34.8% -41.0% 16% 14% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.0% 14% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -46.6% 12% -15.6%
15% -51.8% 11% -23.7%
20% -56.5% 10% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$387 vs −$72 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1,531
Realized+$52,993
Unrealized−$1,133
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses112 / 577
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Open positions30
Markets (closed)689 / 441
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$203
Trades / day126.6
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 689 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? No 80¢ 100¢ $222 $277 +$55 (+25%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 90¢ $122 $250 +$129 (+106%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $180 $151 −$29 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $35 $150 +$116 (+333%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $118 $95 −$24 (-20%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $81 $87 +$6 (+7%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $70 $81 +$11 (+16%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $59 $68 +$8 (+14%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 74¢ $43 $66 +$22 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $27 $59 +$32 (+120%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 32¢ $51 $55 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? No 33¢ 44¢ $29 $38 +$10 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $486 $31 −$455 (-94%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $62 $29 −$32 (-52%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $41 $14 −$27 (-65%)
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Big Tobacco buy Juice Head nicotine pouches? No 25¢ 57¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+130%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+200%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $107 $1 −$105 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $60 $1 −$59 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $94 $1 −$94 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $94 $1 −$94 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $94 $1 −$94 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $94 $1 −$94 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 470 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 7? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on March 13? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 31? Jun 21 $126 −$126 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 1? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? Jun 21 $36 +$23 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on March 6? Jun 21 $2 −$11 -521%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 3? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 8? Jun 21 $254 −$254 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 3? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30? Jun 21 $53 −$58 -109%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 3? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on Ja Jun 21 $9 +$85 +969%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 14? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on Apr Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 8? Jun 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27? Jun 21 $704 −$704 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 8? Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 29? Jun 21 $78 −$76 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 16? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 27 Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 30? Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 21 $82 −$82 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 3? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 14? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16? Jun 21 $1 +$6 +519%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 26? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on April 11? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on Apri Jun 21 $5 −$92 -1738%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 11? Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Fe Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 16? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 1? Jun 21 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on April 2? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 2? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on January 12? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 23? Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 28? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 33¢ $23 4m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 33¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $159 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 33¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 7¢ $104 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $275 9m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 32¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $109 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 13m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 44¢ $33 15m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 16m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 16m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 16m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? SELL Yes 45¢ $30 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $331 18m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $297 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 20m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,530.99 · official $1,509.93 · 3500 history records