Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f64…d313 crypto 594 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$250 (+3%) realized −$600 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%296W / 382L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day561.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$404
7 days−$600
14 days−$600
30 days−$600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$256
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 678 -16.8% -24.8% 44% 35% -16.7%
≤30d 678 -16.8% -24.8% 44% 35% -16.7%
≤90d 678 -16.8% -24.8% 44% 35% -16.7%
all 678 -16.8% -24.8% 44% 35% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover561.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 35% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 26% -24.7%
15% -38.5% 16% -32.0%
20% -44.6% 10% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$600
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses296 / 382
Open positions4
Markets (closed)678 / 594
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day561.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 678 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 58¢ 100¢ $12 $20 +$9 (+73%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 55¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+80%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 75¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.54 · official $26.85 (match) · 3500 history records