Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1f64…27c9 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+21%) realized +$53 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$118
14 days+$118
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$103
finance 6% +$5
sports 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +59.4% +44.2% 67% 67% +43.3%
≤30d 3 +59.4% +44.2% 67% 67% +43.3%
≤90d 9 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 44% +29.5%
all 9 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 44% +29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 44% +29.5%
10% -29.7% 44% +17.1%
15% -36.5% 33% +5.8%
20% -42.7% 22% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +43% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$14 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage55d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$115 +226%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 22 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? May 05 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 −$4 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $80 7m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 87¢ $73 12m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 45h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? SELL No 88¢ $13 31d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY No 0¢ $1 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY No 65¢ $10 43d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 54d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? BUY No 70¢ $5 54d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $3.50 · 16 history records