Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f62…9472 other 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$2,291 (+43%) realized −$3,254 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$1,158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,226
7 days−$1,244
14 days−$1,928
30 days−$3,254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1,016
culture 26% −$877
politics 9% −$257
world 7% −$152
tech 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-66.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -74.1% -76.6% 0% 0% -85.3%
≤30d 254 -63.1% -66.6% 4% 3% -83.6%
≤90d 254 -63.1% -66.6% 4% 3% -83.6%
all 254 -63.1% -66.6% 4% 3% -83.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.6% 3% -83.6%
10% ← realistic here -69.8% 3% -85.2%
15% -72.7% 3% -86.6%
20% -75.4% 3% -87.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -95% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -95% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,158
Realized−$3,254
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 244
Open positions265
Markets (closed)254 / 64
History coverage25d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 265 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 20? Yes 5¢ 99¢ $3 $59 +$57 (+1982%)
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Yes 50¢ 93¢ $29 $53 +$25 (+86%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? Yes 14¢ 83¢ $8 $46 +$38 (+481%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 50¢ 80¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+60%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 50¢ 78¢ $25 $38 +$14 (+55%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Yes 20¢ 86¢ $7 $31 +$24 (+328%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 44¢ $5 $26 +$21 (+384%)
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 5¢ 52¢ $2 $26 +$24 (+1055%)
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 42¢ $5 $25 +$20 (+362%)
Will The Weeknd be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes 3¢ 38¢ $2 $23 +$21 (+1202%)
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes 3¢ 73¢ $1 $22 +$21 (+2528%)
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 37¢ $5 $22 +$17 (+307%)
Will Post Malone be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes 3¢ 31¢ $2 $19 +$17 (+966%)
Will Tubi: Movies & Live TV be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Yes 7¢ 31¢ $4 $19 +$14 (+334%)
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 5¢ 30¢ $3 $18 +$15 (+549%)
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 30¢ $5 $18 +$12 (+224%)
Will FOX One: Live News, Sports, TV be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Yes 7¢ 30¢ $4 $18 +$13 (+313%)
Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Yes 7¢ 28¢ $4 $17 +$13 (+299%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 36¢ $1 $17 +$16 (+1640%)
Will Billie Eilish be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes 3¢ 25¢ $2 $15 +$13 (+755%)
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 24¢ $5 $15 +$9 (+169%)
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 24¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+158%)
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 24¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+158%)
Will Kendrick Lamar be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes 3¢ 23¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+685%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "In Bloom" by Lilas Ikuta (The Apothecary Diaries Season 2) win B Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will "DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH" win Palme d'Or at Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will Liwei Yang win Britain's Got Talent? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Nope" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$4 -124%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$21 -136%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$8 -139%
Will Martina Tamburello as Kikoru Shinomiya (Kaiju No. 8 Season 2) win Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19m? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -101%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $0 −$2 -777%
Will Anthony Jones win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "GREENGREEN - CORTIS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Fumihiko Suganuma (Gachiakuta) win Best Director at the 2026 Crun Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Alexis Tipton as Reze (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) win Be Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top US Netflix movie this w Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "My Dress-Up Darling Season 2" win Best Character Design at the 2 Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will "ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes F Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -51%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$5 -109%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$12 -103%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will "GOAT" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 15 $4 −$5 -121%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? Jun 15 $13 −$26 -205%
Will "Ladies First" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Will Ted Hill win Britain's Got Talent? Jun 15 $2 −$3 -101%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 15 $17 −$18 -105%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$3 -172%
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -103%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Justin Tootla win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -66%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $0 −$2 -701%
Will "ZENSHU" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Aw Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? Jun 15 $13 −$27 -213%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this wee Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Takopi's Original Sin" win Best Character Design at the 2026 Cru Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL Yes 9¢ $0 19m
Will "davooxeneize" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will "roshtein" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will "sxb" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will "absi" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? SELL Yes 44¢ $26 2h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL Yes 58¢ $17 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 80¢ $4 5h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 7h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 7h
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Aw SELL Yes 47¢ $5 8h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 10h
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL Yes 44¢ $15 11h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $8 12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 12h
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 14h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 15h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? SELL Yes 82¢ $24 15h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 16h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,157.75 · official $1,162.84 (match) · 1333 history records