Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1f62…76f6 sports 854 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (389 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$8,866 (+5%) realized +$9,213 · open −$347
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%457W / 218L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day388.8pace
Fees−$1,422est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$24,667now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$16,237
other 15% +$276
world 1% +$142
crypto 0% −$747
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (389 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 668 +38.2% +25.0% 67% 52% -1.5%
≤30d 675 +41.3% +27.9% 68% 52% -0.4%
≤90d 675 +41.3% +27.9% 68% 52% -0.4%
all 675 +41.3% +27.9% 68% 52% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover388.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.9% 52% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here +15.6% 39% -9.9%
15% +4.5% 29% -18.6%
20% -5.8% 22% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +76% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$151 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$24,667
Realized+$9,213
Unrealized−$347
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses457 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,422
Open positions115
Markets (closed)675 / 854
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$200
Trades / day388.8
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 115 History 675 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Under 96¢ 96¢ $750 $742 −$8 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Under 83¢ 81¢ $749 $736 −$14 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 77¢ 80¢ $500 $516 +$16 (+3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 84¢ 84¢ $506 $509 +$3 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $499 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 37¢ 36¢ $527 $507 −$20 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 52¢ 50¢ $519 $505 −$14 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 50¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $510 $505 −$5 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jordan 63¢ 64¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Türkiye 73¢ 72¢ $507 $503 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Tunisia 74¢ 74¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 93¢ 94¢ $499 $502 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 35¢ 34¢ $508 $501 −$7 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $500 $497 −$2 (-0%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Under 93¢ 92¢ $499 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Canada 83¢ 82¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $500 $496 −$3 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 95¢ $499 $496 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 79¢ 74¢ $531 $496 −$35 (-7%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $500 $494 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: France (-4.5) Iraq 80¢ 81¢ $481 $491 +$10 (+2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Tunisia 61¢ 56¢ $533 $487 −$46 (-9%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $500 $485 −$15 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 22 $124 +$135 +108%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $0 $0 +112%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$8 +80%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $500 +$16 +3%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $249 +$7 +3%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $500 +$67 +13%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $4 +$17 +456%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 22 $248 +$31 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $515 +$1,047 +203%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $500 +$56 +11%
CR Brasil vs. Fortaleza EC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $56 −$5 -8%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $186 −$186 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $110 −$46 -42%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $259 −$259 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $301 −$105 -35%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 +$15 +176%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $2 $0 +6%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $542 −$24 -4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi Jun 21 $0 $0 +37%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi Jun 21 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi Jun 21 $10 +$7 +66%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $9 +$23 +262%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $125 +$130 +104%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $190 +$71 +37%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Jun 21 $10 +$1 +9%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O Jun 21 $3 +$1 +22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $500 +$68 +14%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $250 +$270 +108%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $249 +$35 +14%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $26 +$131 +499%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $250 +$612 +245%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $511 +$600 +118%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 21 $28 +$38 +138%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $125 +$70 +56%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $500 +$520 +104%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $254 +$8 +3%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $250 +$51 +20%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $47 +$3 +6%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $500 +$214 +43%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $125 +$4 +3%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $64 +$46 +71%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $125 +$41 +32%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,000 +$455 +46%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $125 −$125 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 86¢ $30 35m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $14 43m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 83¢ $6 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $63 1h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $235 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $127 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $500 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 19¢ $12 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $362 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $6 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $0 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $130 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 60¢ $500 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $15 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $78 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $82 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 66¢ $515 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $500 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $500 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $111 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $500 1h
New Zealand to win the second half? BUY No 81¢ $21 1h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 86¢ $134 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 76¢ $44 1h
New Zealand to win the second half? BUY No 81¢ $10 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 82¢ $10 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $12 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $39 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,666.94 · official $25,199.52 · 3500 history records