Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1f60…50b1
crypto · 902 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$69 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$69 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses633 / 269
Open positions0
Markets (closed)902 / 902
History coverage62d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 902 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$77
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? BUY No 73¢ $11 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? SELL No 89¢ $11 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? BUY No 83¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 1? SELL No 99¢ $9 12d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 1? BUY No 56¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +18.4% +7.2% 89% 89% +7.3%
≤30d 154 -9.3% -18.0% 69% 49% -17.9%
≤90d 902 -0.9% -10.3% 70% 54% -8.6%
all 902 -0.9% -10.3% 70% 54% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 54% -8.6%
10% -18.9% 39% -17.4%
15% -26.8% 28% -25.4%
20% -33.9% 17% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2130 history records