Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1F 0x1f5f…c91d weather 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%58W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$38
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$5
weather 34% +$16
sports 21% −$27
crypto 1% −$5
tech 1% +$1
world 1% −$11
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +3.5% -6.3% 52% 47% -12.5%
≤30d 98 +3.3% -6.5% 53% 48% -12.1%
≤90d 98 +3.3% -6.5% 53% 48% -12.1%
all 106 +3.3% -6.6% 55% 44% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 44% -12.0%
10% -15.5% 39% -20.4%
15% -23.7% 33% -28.1%
20% -31.2% 23% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$484
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses58 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions18
Markets (closed)106 / 124
History coverage237d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? No 79¢ 100¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 56¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $5 $19 +$14 (+270%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+31%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 47¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+113%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 $0 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 +$12 +105%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$5 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$18 +177%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $20 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$26 +1265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $20 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $20 −$14 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -87%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$7 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$13 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$13 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +250%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$12 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 50¢ $7 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 47¢ $3 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $301 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 31h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 75¢ $19 32h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $40 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $20 32h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 79¢ $20 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 40h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.47 · official $484.47 (match) · 232 history records