Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1f5f…1695 other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$257 (-2%) realized +$868 · open −$1,125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$239
7 days+$145
14 days+$145
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$850
sports 35% −$1,539
world 4% −$500
crypto 3% −$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +42.8% +29.2% 42% 42% -8.9%
≤30d 36 +42.8% +29.2% 42% 42% -8.9%
≤90d 36 +42.8% +29.2% 42% 42% -8.9%
all 49 +23.6% +11.8% 41% 41% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.8% 41% -12.4%
10% +1.1% 39% -20.8%
15% -8.7% 37% -28.5%
20% -17.6% 31% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$276 vs −$202 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$868
Unrealized−$1,125
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage214d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $128 $2 −$126 (-98%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $1,000 $1 −$999 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $254 +$331 +130%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $758 +$414 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $205 +$140 +68%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $197 +$446 +226%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $406 +$426 +105%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$91 -88%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $307 +$38 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $205 +$61 +30%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $407 −$400 -98%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $358 +$891 +249%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $506 +$327 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $503 −$500 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $507 −$500 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $153 +$364 +238%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $254 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $253 +$210 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,208 +$810 +37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $556 −$549 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $406 +$435 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $254 −$250 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$252 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $252 +$110 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 13 $20 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 13 $30 +$17 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 13 $25 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 13 $25 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -99%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Nov 16 $500 −$500 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $170 +$57 +34%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Nov 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO? Nov 16 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $220 +$118 +53%
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $100 +$65 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 16m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $40 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $585 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $254 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $153 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $758 18h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 56¢ $4 19h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 56¢ $12 19h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 56¢ $28 19h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 56¢ $28 19h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 56¢ $28 19h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 56¢ $4 19h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 56¢ $7 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 19h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 57¢ $183 20h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 57¢ $10 20h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 57¢ $1 20h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 57¢ $2 20h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 57¢ $5 20h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 57¢ $25 20h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 57¢ $1 20h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 57¢ $1 20h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $643 20h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $197 22h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $205 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $832 22h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.03 · official $3.03 (match) · 97 history records